As has been clearly observed in the last few days, there has been a major downward move below the $10,000 support in BTC price versus the almighty US Dollar.
- For now at least, BTC is correcting higher, but upsides currently risk topping out near $9,800 and $10,000.
- Analysis indicates there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $9,980 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (courtesy: data feed from Kraken).
- The feeling is that there may well be a short term upside correction, however the bulls are looking more than likely to struggle as we then again approach the seemingly extra tough psychological barrier of $10,000.
The price of bitcoin is working hard to overcome the many challenges on the upside near $10,000 against the US Dollar. As long as BTC is trading below the $10K resistance it remains sell on rallies.
Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis (BTC)
In the previous weekly forecast, discussion centered around the possibilities of a downward move below $10,000 in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair did move down and broke the key $10,000 and $9,800 support levels. Additionally, there was a close beneath the $10,000 focal point and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). Additionally, there was a break beneath the $9,800 and $9,500 supports as well.
A new monthly low was formed near $9,300 and the price is presently settling losses. It is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the latest decline from the $10,717 high to $9,308 low. Having said that, there are several hurdles on the upside near the $9,800 and $9,900 levels. In addition, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $9,980 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Aside from that, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $10,717 high to $9,308 low is also near the $10,010 level. As a result, upsides are very likely to continue being capped near the $9,800 and $10,000 levels. Above the trend line, the 100 SMA is lingering near the $10,150 level. The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $10,717 high to $9,308 low is also waiting near the $10,170 level.
On the downside, a critical support is near the $9,500 level. If there is a downside break below the $9,500 support, the price may continue to move down below the last swing low at $9,300. The next key supports are near the $9,100 and $9,000 levels.
Taking a close look and running a trained eye over the chart, it is clear to see that the price of bitcoin is trading in a downward trend below $10,000. Despite what looks like an upside correction coming in the short term, major sell zones seem set too take a firm hold around the $9,800 and $10,000 levels in upcoming sessions.
Technical indicators that matter…
4 hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slowly but surely moving into the bullish zone.
4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is slowly rising closer and closer to the 50 level.
Major Support Level – $9,500
Major Resistance Level – $10,000
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