New and highly anticipated excitement of a crypto “move” has once again ignited the call that the Bitcoin price will reach $1,000,000. It's just a matter of time…
Thanks to the IBM executive, Jesse Lund, the incredibly bullish target is yet again trending high within the evolving cryptocurrency space. Lund, who heads the company's blockchain & digital currencies division, said that bitcoin would reach a seven-figure worth in a recent interview.
Of course, media runs the story and individuals spread it. Responses came from both ends of the stick. Critics questioned the practicality and eventuality of a $1 million Bitcoin, while the crypto maximalists supported it with true passion and belief.
However, even in the truest heart of even the most committed bitcoin fan, there is surely at least an element of doubt? What if the prediction fails? What if bitcoin doesn't reach where experts projected it would ultimately arrive? Are we really expecting BTC to be have a million dollar value?
Most significantly, what obstacles and challenges would BTC require to go through to replace the world's leading assets, such as the US Dollar, rare-earth elements, stocks, properties, and other FIAT options?
Let's get the ball rolling with a perfect scenario. Then, we will increase the degree of difficulty and transition to a more dystopian one.
Scenario for a $1 Million Bitcoin
The overall Bitcoin supply is restricted to 21 million. And in
that figure, approximately 36% of the coins have been lost, most likely lost, or unmined. That quickly adds up to 7.56 million bitcoin that thanks to human erros and mistake, are totally inaccessible.
That leaves the bitcoin market with an approximate current supply of 13.44 million tokens, the very last of which would only come into existence by the year 2140. And that is not accounting for MORE lost BTC along the way!
For us to even contemplate that each remaining BTC will cost $1 million, then the overall market capitalization of bitcoin would have to end up being $13.44 trillion. That figure would make the bitcoin network richer than China, as well as some of the world's biggest and most successful business including Amazon, Apple, and Facebook, and furthermore, even the world's top 50 billionaires integrated. Additionally, BTC would become equivalent to 11.7% of the world's GDP, 19.5% of international stock exchange, and 32.5% of the total money supply– all on a bitcoin-against-the-other basis.
The overall process requires bitcoin to need to be either steady or higher than what it is today. The digital currency is deflationary, which means its purchasing power could and is expected to increase with time. Atop that, its supply rate decreases after every 4 years– roughly– which suits the famous demand-vs-supply theory that specifies an asset's real-time worth. It makes perfect sense to assume that the less of something that there is, the more valuable it becomes!
Even with that being said however, for bitcoin to ultimately arrive at a price of $1 million, it would need to displace mainstream assets. For instance, 1.7 billion individuals around the world do not have access to banking services. At the same time, in some strange paradox though, more than two-thirds of the population has a mobile phone and an internet connection. In such a way, it is much easier for individuals to access financial services by means of bitcoin than a bank – hence another valuable quality.
It would further indicate that individuals even on the planet's furthest corners would have the ability to exchange goods and services for an internet-based digital currency. It directly suggests that value would end up being more distributable, specifically when the most affluent 1% currently own 45% of the world's wealth.
Economically Weaker Countries
It is certainly wrong to overlook the current condition of certain economically weaker countries. Zimbabwe and Venezuela, for example, are going through their worst hyperinflation phase ever as a result of poor political decision making. Within these nations, and out of necessity, many have abandoned their national currencies and are using digital currencies such as Bitcoin and Dash as alternatives.
Atop that, the digital currency technology likewise serves individuals who wish to bypass stricter investment and capital restrictions. The history of bitcoin has plenty of such cases. During the Greece financial obligation crisis, the federal government had actually enforced currency controls on its individuals. The unsteady economic oversight prompted people to buy bitcoin as a haven. Likewise, in China, the federal government's decision to restrict capital outflow led to a boost in need for digital currencies.
Extremely recently, nations slapped with United States financial sanctions saw its residents transferring to bitcoin. Iran, for example, needed to reveal a bitcoin ban to avert its people from accessing non-state currencies. However, the Middle Eastern country chose that it would raise the ban to clear legal blockades around its national cryptocurrency, the Crypto Rial.
If any of these nations wind up recognizing bitcoin as its economical savior and sanctuary, it will bring their whole population stampeding into the cryptocurrency spectrum. On a wider level, it will rate BTC a hot asset even among the traditionally crypto conservative Wall Streeters. In fact, haven't they already started building advanced tools for trading bitcoin? It's the worst kept secret! And, aren't there multiple crypto derivatives products standing in a line for regulators' evaluation? The answer to that question in a resounding Yes.
The first structures describe how established monetary companies are getting ready for a possible bitcoin adoption. When again, it enhances the $1 million project for bitcoin, as forecasted by Lund and numerous crypto specialists before him.
Investigating a Dystopian Scenario
For bitcoin to continue to work, and to continue to displace current standards, one also needs to comprehend that, in the end, it is a mere innovation. This asset, like many innovations before it is as flawed as the next tech revolution– be it the VR, machine learning or the huge forecasted impacts of AI. Of course, it would be necessary to go through numerous obstacles to accomplish the adoption needed to match its $1 million bid. Have a look at these challenges in the way of a 1 Million Dollar Bitcoin:
Is There a Scaling Problem?
The biggest scaling problem is that Bitcoin's block size is 1 MB. It is inadequate to handle a higher variety of transactions taking place on the network. Consider it as feeding a great deal of inputs through a tight funnel. The more the inputs there will be, the slower it would take the tunnel to process them. Bitcoin's scalability problem is the exact same and is a major criticism. With increased use, its blockchain records transactions more slowly. It causes a backlog, which indicates each transaction awaits more than normal to get confirmed on the bitcoin network. An unsatisfactory situation.
Bitcoin developers Thaddeus Dryja and Joseph Poon created an independent layer-two solution to solve the scaling crisis. Called as Lightning Network (LN), and hailed the BTC savior, the tool introduced a new, off-chain payment channel that transfers bitcoin funds almost as quickly as Google sends an email. The major drawback however is that the payment details does not touch the primary blockchain unless both the sender and the receiver close their transaction link.
Virtually, the LN works however it does not totally fix the long-lasting scalability problem for bitcoin. It is still under development, and more upgrades would clarify whether or not it is THE service that could quite possibly change the whole future of BTC.
Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency sector require to function in a favorable or at least allowable regulatory environment. People would discover it hard to adopt the blockchain assets if their agents spill negativeness versus them. A typical Joe would always feel threatened by law while utilizing cryptocurrencies. Services would prevent integrating them. On a whole, cryptocurrencies could easily become the asset of choice for criminals.
An unreasonable regulation could likewise stifle the growth of bitcoin prior to it attempts to touch a $1 million evaluation. For example, BitLicense, a crypto law proposed and implemented by the New york city State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), literally caused a “bitcoin exodus.” According to the many crypto startups, they could not manage a $5,000 fee only to get BitLicense, particularly when NYDFS could not guarantee their approval.
While the regulators all over the world are trying to develop a global structure, it does not guarantee a nice circumstance for individuals who enjoyed bitcoin for its anti-establishment functions. That stated, a fair and balanced guideline could solve things. However to what extent no one can tell. A bilateral trust in between the government and bitcoin community could allow the digital currency to walk or even jog and run towards a $1 million assessment.
Banks need to offer liquidity for traders. Unless individuals gain an option to change back and forth between fiat and bitcoin rapidly, they wouldn't like holding the digital currency. Individuals buy gold due to the fact that they know they can offer it over-the-counter or online for money. However unless a bank is willing to provide services to bitcoin business, it will not be possible.
Take Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for example. The Indian central bank one day decided to issue a circular that disallowed controlled banks from providing services to local bitcoin exchanges. The choice resulted in a wave of panic among Indian investors: they either sold their entire bitcoin holdings per the deadline or transferred funds to offshore/cold wallets to offer them later on at greater rates in the black market.
The web has plenty of stories where charge card companies restricted their users from acquiring cryptocurrencies. Many a time, banks froze accounts of customers that were trading bitcoins. So, unless banks end up being friendly to bitcoin, it would be challenging for the digital currency to discover adoption like that of gold.
The Conclusion…At Least For Now…
Where the price of BTC will eventually end up is really led by the ways that blockchain and more importantly, technology in general develops. Mass adoption could see the digital currency network growing as fast as a red hot social network, thus boosting its overall valuation on the sideways. However, when it comes to growth, it would surely need to scale exponentially. Were the network to seem somewhat fractured, then as is human nature, end users would simply drop and switch to the next best blockchain option.
When you break it all down, the amazing Bitcoin has incredible fundamentals behind it all leading to long term success. Depending on what happens, it could even go beyond $1 million believe it or not! But, and it's a huge but, Bitcoin needs to remain, a stable utility tech. And without that stability and ease of use, not even the most hardened and one eyed Bitcoin supporter will be able to argue that a million dollar price tag is in any of our futures.