BTC Below $1,000 Unlikely
Since Bitcoin (BTC) acquired traction in the mainstream media, many sceptics and economists have actually claimed that the cryptocurrency space looks like the Dotcom boom and bust at the turn of the millennia. Thus, numerous have argued that the crypto market's cycles will likely make many similar moves to the Nasdaq, a tech-centric stock index, in 2000 to 2003. Yet, one expert declares that this is not likely to be exactly the case, mentioning that BTC's value proposition is much different than that of a technology stock.
Bitcoin Likely To Move Differently Than Amazon In Dotcom Bubble
Leading crypto proponent PlanB just recently took to Twitter to note that while Amazon (AMAZ) fell from $105 to $5 during the Dotcom crash of 2000 and 2001, BTC may not be in for the very same fate.
He discussed that BTC collapsing to $1,000, a 95% drawdown from the $20,000 all-time high, which would be 75% lower than the current $4,000 level, is most likely to occur in the near future, even calling the chances of this incident coming to fulfilment “really low.”
Some people think #bitcoin (BTC) will crash to $1000, a 75% drop from current price, and 95% drop from it's ATH in Dec 2017
That would be similar to Amazon's (AMZN) 95% drop from $105 to $5 during the dotcom crash of 2000-2001
Why will BTC be different than or the same as AMZN? pic.twitter.com/pIJQrO3j99
— planB (@100trillionUSD) February 21, 2019
The analyst added that BTC has already been through its “AMZN style” crash, particularly when it collapsed by 95% in 2011 to a single digit assessment. Since then, the asset's drawdowns have ended up being marginally less and less severe, meaning that BTC's current transfer to $3,150 might have been it for this market. PlanB included that essentially, the unpredictability about the value proposition for Bitcoin, imbroglios like Mt. Gox, and altcoins/ICOs is now gone, sealing that BTC has a future and upside.
In related news, PlanB, citing his stock-to-flow (quantity of BTC around over issuance rate) analysis, noted that BTC is fairly valued at $6,250. While this isn't much higher than the asset's present valuation, in different tweets, he has actually mentioned that BTC might reach $10,000 by the next Bitcoin issuance shift, slated to trigger in May of next year. As soon as the so-called “halvening” goes live, PlanB has declared that considering the stock-to-flow ratios of other rare-earth elements, like gold, silver, platinum, among others, BTC at $3,500 will be 10 times to 100 times undervalued. So, if PlanB's thesis is correct, a reasonable evaluation for post-halvening Bitcoin might be in between $34,000 and $340,000.
The Case For Sub-$2,000 BTC
PlanB is near-convinced that BTC won't be up to lower lows in this market cycle, however, some analysts are determined that Bitcoin might have far more to fall– and even more after that.
Murad Mahmudov of Adaptive Capital kept in mind that the waning presence of Bitcoin-related talk about Twitter must be a cause for concern. The trader described that tweets regarding the cryptocurrency have actually reached 2014 levels, lower than any point in 2016, suggesting that individuals care less about decentralized, sovereign, uninflatable currency. He added that this effectively confirms the thesis that 2017's parabolic run-up had little effect on the crypto community's size.
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